The Eurasian Geopolitical Axis: Strategic Dynamics of Iran, North Korea, Russia, and China in the Emerging Multipolar World Order

I. Introduction

In the aftermath of the Cold War, the international system experienced a brief yet profound phase of unipolarity dominated by the United States. This unipolar moment, characterized by American military supremacy, economic dominance, and normative influence, shaped global geopolitics throughout the 1990s and early 2000s. However, over the past two decades, the structural dynamics of global power have shifted dramatically. The erosion of unipolarity and the gradual emergence of a multipolar world order have opened new spaces for regional powers and revisionist states to challenge the established international norms and institutions.

Within this evolving geopolitical landscape, the strategic alignment among Iran, North Korea, Russia, and China has gained increasing attention from international observers and policymakers. Although these four nations differ significantly in terms of their political systems, economic structures, and regional contexts, they share a set of common strategic interests that have drawn them closer. These shared interests include resistance to Western (particularly American) dominance, the desire to reshape global governance structures, and the pursuit of national sovereignty free from external interference.

In recent years, the interactions among these states have transcended traditional bilateral relations and moved towards more complex and coordinated forms of strategic cooperation. Evidence of this trend can be seen in synchronized diplomatic moves at the United Nations, joint military exercises, economic partnerships that circumvent Western sanctions, and the establishment of alternative international institutions and mechanisms that rival Western-led frameworks. While these countries do not yet constitute a formal military or political alliance, their collective behavior increasingly reflects a de facto coalition aimed at counterbalancing the West.

This article seeks to address several key research questions:

1. What are the primary drivers behind the strategic convergence of Iran, North Korea, Russia, and China?
2. How do these countries coordinate their actions across diplomatic, economic, and military domains?
3. What are the global implications of this emerging geopolitical axis for international security and stability?
4. What are the potential vulnerabilities and limitations of this informal coalition?

The purpose of this study is to provide a comprehensive analysis of the geopolitical motivations, mechanisms of cooperation, and global impact of the strategic alignment among these four states. Understanding this alignment is crucial for scholars, policymakers, and security analysts seeking to interpret current international developments and anticipate future geopolitical shifts.

Methodologically, this article adopts a qualitative analytical approach, utilizing a combination of primary and secondary data sources. These include official government statements, United Nations voting records, international security reports, and scholarly publications in the fields of international relations and strategic studies. The research employs a comparative framework to examine both individual national strategies and collective patterns of interaction. By integrating perspectives from geopolitics, security studies, and international political economy, this study aims to offer a holistic understanding of the evolving dynamics of this informal yet increasingly influential geopolitical bloc.

In sum, the strategic coordination between Iran, North Korea, Russia, and China represents one of the most significant developments in contemporary geopolitics. As the world transitions toward a more multipolar order, examining the nature and consequences of this alignment becomes essential for grasping the future trajectory of international relations.

Berikut adalah bagian II. Historical Context of the Four-Nation Relations dalam bentuk artikel akademik (sekitar 600 kata):

II. Historical Context of the Four-Nation Relations

The strategic alignment among Iran, North Korea, Russia, and China did not emerge in a vacuum. Instead, it is the product of decades of complex historical interactions shaped by ideological affinities, shared strategic calculations, and common experiences of external pressures, particularly from the West. Understanding the historical trajectory of bilateral and multilateral relations among these four countries is essential to contextualize their current geopolitical posture.

Overview of Historical Bilateral and Multilateral Relations

Bilateral relations among the four nations have evolved through multiple phases, often dictated by changing global and regional power dynamics. China and North Korea, for instance, share a deep-rooted relationship that dates back to the Korean War (1950–1953), during which China provided critical military support to North Korea against United Nations forces led by the United States. This historical solidarity established a foundation for enduring, albeit complex, strategic ties.

Similarly, Russia (as the successor state to the Soviet Union) has historically maintained strong defense and economic relations with both North Korea and Iran. During the Cold War, the Soviet Union was North Korea’s principal military patron and a key supporter of Iran's industrial development. After the Iranian Revolution in 1979, Tehran gradually established more pragmatic ties with Moscow, especially in the defense and energy sectors.

China and Iran, while less ideologically aligned, have built steady economic and strategic ties, particularly since the 1990s. China’s growing demand for energy and Iran’s role as a major oil and gas supplier have served as key drivers of this relationship. Furthermore, both nations have shown increasing alignment in multilateral forums, often opposing Western-led resolutions on issues such as human rights and sanctions.

While formal multilateral cooperation among all four nations has been limited historically, their shared interests have gradually led to more coordinated diplomatic behavior, particularly in response to Western pressure.

Cold War Legacies Shaping Contemporary Alignments

The Cold War left an indelible mark on the geopolitical orientations of these states. The ideological divide between the capitalist West and the communist or revolutionary socialist states laid the groundwork for long-term mistrust of Western intentions. North Korea, shaped by its Juche ideology, has consistently framed its foreign policy as a struggle against imperialism, primarily targeting the United States and its allies.

Russia, emerging from the collapse of the Soviet Union, underwent a brief period of rapprochement with the West in the 1990s but gradually reverted to a more assertive foreign policy following NATO’s eastward expansion and the 2014 Ukraine crisis. Similarly, China, while integrating into the global economy, has increasingly positioned itself as a counterweight to U.S. dominance, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region.

Iran’s revolutionary identity, forged in opposition to Western intervention and reinforced by decades of U.S.-led sanctions, further aligns it with other states challenging the existing international order.

Shared Experiences of Western Sanctions and Diplomatic Isolation

A critical commonality binding these four nations is their prolonged experience of Western sanctions and diplomatic isolation. North Korea has been under some form of international sanctions since the early 1990s, primarily due to its nuclear weapons program. Iran has faced successive waves of U.S. and UN sanctions, particularly over its nuclear activities and regional interventions.

Russia became the target of comprehensive Western sanctions after its annexation of Crimea in 2014 and more recently following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. China, while not under broad international sanctions, has faced targeted economic restrictions and trade wars, especially under the Trump and Biden administrations, as part of the growing U.S.-China strategic rivalry.

These shared experiences have encouraged these countries to explore alternative economic and financial mechanisms, including barter trade, local currency transactions, and de-dollarization efforts, as means to circumvent Western-dominated financial systems.

Timeline of Increasing Cooperation Post-2000

The turn of the 21st century marked a notable acceleration in strategic cooperation among these states. Key milestones include:

• 2000s: Increased Sino-Iranian energy cooperation; Russia’s arms sales to Iran; ongoing North Korea-China economic ties.
• 2010–2014: Joint opposition to UN Security Council resolutions; Russia and China begin coordinated vetoes on issues affecting Syria and Iran.
• Post-2014: Following Crimea, Russia intensifies its pivot to the East, deepening ties with China and seeking new economic partners like Iran and North Korea.
• 2015–2020: The Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) saw temporary easing of sanctions, but post-U.S. withdrawal in 2018, Iran returned to closer alignment with China and Russia.
• Post-2022: Following the Ukraine war, Moscow further deepens strategic and military-technical cooperation with Tehran and Pyongyang, while China-Russia ties continue to strengthen through the "no limits" partnership declared in early 2022.

This timeline illustrates the gradual but unmistakable trend of convergence driven by external pressures and converging strategic calculations. Though still lacking a formal alliance structure, the four nations are increasingly acting in concert across diplomatic, military, and economic domains.

 

 

III. Geopolitical Motivations of Each Country

The geopolitical alignment among Iran, North Korea, Russia, and China is underpinned by distinct yet overlapping national interests and strategic calculations. Each country’s motivations are shaped by its unique geopolitical environment, domestic imperatives, and long-standing rivalries with Western powers. This section examines the specific geopolitical motivations driving each country's engagement in this emerging coalition.

Iran: Pursuit of Regional Hegemony and Strategic Autonomy

Iran’s geopolitical motivations are deeply rooted in its aspiration for regional dominance in the Middle East and its resistance against external intervention, particularly from the United States and its allies.

First, Iran seeks to establish itself as the preeminent power in the Persian Gulf and the broader Middle East. Its influence spans across Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen through various proxy networks such as Hezbollah and the Houthis. Tehran’s strategic calculus emphasizes asymmetric warfare, ideological mobilization, and regional alliances to counterbalance more technologically advanced adversaries like Saudi Arabia and Israel.

Second, Iran’s anti-Western stance, stemming from the 1979 Islamic Revolution, continues to shape its foreign policy outlook. The country views the presence of U.S. military forces in neighboring Iraq, Afghanistan (until 2021), and the Gulf as existential threats. Its hostility towards NATO intervention in regional affairs further solidifies its strategic alignment with other states opposing Western influence.

Third, Iran’s nuclear ambitions play a central role in its geopolitical strategy. Despite international pressure, sanctions, and diplomatic isolation, Iran continues to advance its nuclear program as both a deterrence measure and a bargaining tool. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) temporarily eased tensions, but the U.S. withdrawal in 2018 reignited Iran’s nuclear activities. As sanctions cripple Iran’s economy, Tehran increasingly turns to Moscow and Beijing for economic lifelines and diplomatic support.

North Korea: Regime Survival and Strategic Leverage

North Korea’s geopolitical motivations are fundamentally driven by regime survival and the preservation of national sovereignty. The ruling Kim dynasty views external threats—particularly from the United States, South Korea, and Japan—as justification for its continued militarization and domestic repression.

The foremost priority for Pyongyang is to deter external aggression through the development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missile technology. North Korea’s nuclear program serves a dual purpose: it strengthens domestic legitimacy and provides diplomatic leverage on the international stage. The regime has demonstrated a pattern of calculated brinkmanship—provoking crises through weapons tests to extract concessions or diplomatic recognition.

Economic isolation, resulting from decades of sanctions, has forced North Korea into strategic dependence on China for trade, energy, and humanitarian support. Beijing remains Pyongyang’s most significant economic partner and political protector at international forums like the United Nations. While this dependence gives China leverage, North Korea has proven adept at playing major powers against each other to maximize its strategic autonomy.

Furthermore, recent reports indicate growing military-technical cooperation between North Korea and Russia, especially following Russia’s increasing international isolation after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. This trend reflects North Korea’s opportunistic approach to alliances based on shifting geopolitical circumstances.

Russia: Reasserting Great Power Status and Countering NATO

Russia’s geopolitical motivations reflect its desire to reclaim great power status and counter what it perceives as Western encroachment into its traditional sphere of influence.

The annexation of Crimea in 2014 marked a turning point in Russia’s foreign policy, signaling a definitive break from its post-Cold War rapprochement with the West. The subsequent Western sanctions and diplomatic isolation accelerated Moscow’s pivot toward non-Western partners, especially China and Iran. This strategic reorientation is driven by both necessity and ideological alignment against Western liberal internationalism.

Countering NATO expansion remains a core tenet of Russian strategic thinking. Moscow views NATO’s presence near its borders, especially in Eastern Europe and the Baltics, as a direct threat to its national security. As a response, Russia has intensified military cooperation with non-NATO states, conducted joint exercises with China, and deepened defense ties with countries like Iran.

Energy diplomacy serves as another critical pillar of Russia’s geopolitical strategy. As one of the world’s leading exporters of oil and natural gas, Russia leverages its energy resources to exert influence over both allies and adversaries. The construction of energy corridors toward China and partnerships with Iran in the global energy market highlight Moscow’s efforts to diversify its economic partnerships and reduce dependence on European markets.

China: Expanding Global Influence and Securing Domestic Stability

China’s geopolitical motivations are multifaceted, combining global ambition with domestic security concerns.

One of Beijing’s most prominent initiatives is the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a vast infrastructure and investment program aimed at enhancing China’s global connectivity and influence. By strengthening economic ties with countries like Iran and Russia, China seeks to secure critical energy resources, open new markets, and build strategic corridors that bypass potentially hostile maritime routes dominated by U.S. naval power.

Strategically, China views its growing rivalry with the United States, particularly in the Indo-Pacific, as the central axis of its foreign policy. Issues such as the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and freedom of navigation operations underscore the intensifying competition between Washington and Beijing. By aligning with other states marginalized by the West, China aims to build a counterbalancing coalition capable of resisting U.S.-led containment strategies.

Additionally, domestic stability remains a top priority for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Beijing is acutely aware of the risks posed by separatist movements in regions like Xinjiang and Tibet, as well as external interference in its internal affairs. Strengthening ties with authoritarian regimes like Iran, Russia, and North Korea reinforces China’s ideological narrative of state sovereignty and non-interference.

From a security perspective, China has also increased its participation in joint military exercises with Russia and engaged in technological cooperation with Iran, particularly in areas such as cybersecurity and telecommunications.

In summary, while Iran, North Korea, Russia, and China each pursue distinct geopolitical goals, their shared interest in challenging Western hegemony and preserving regime stability creates a powerful incentive for strategic coordination. The convergence of their motivations, though diverse in nature, continues to shape the evolving contours of global geopolitics.

IV. Forms and Mechanisms of Strategic Cooperation

The strategic partnership between Iran, North Korea, Russia, and China is characterized by a diverse and evolving set of cooperative mechanisms that span diplomacy, military affairs, economics, technology, and energy sectors. While this coalition is not institutionalized in the form of a formal alliance, their pragmatic and often issue-based coordination reveals a growing level of strategic depth and operational synergy. This section explores the primary forms and mechanisms through which these four states cooperate.

Diplomatic Coordination

A significant dimension of their cooperation manifests in diplomatic coordination at international forums, particularly within the United Nations (UN) system. Over the past two decades, Russia and China have frequently employed their veto power at the UN Security Council to block or dilute resolutions perceived as targeting their interests or those of their strategic partners. For instance, both countries have repeatedly vetoed Western-sponsored resolutions aimed at imposing further sanctions on Iran or intervening militarily in Syria.

Similarly, when it comes to North Korea, Russia and China have shown a pattern of obstructing stronger UN sanctions or pushing for the relaxation of existing measures, often citing humanitarian grounds or the need for diplomatic engagement. Iran, though not a permanent member of the Security Council, has benefited significantly from this diplomatic shield, with Russia and China often advocating for dialogue over punitive measures regarding its nuclear program.

Beyond the UN, coordination among these countries is also visible in other multilateral forums. Russia and China, as key members of organizations like BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), use these platforms to promote alternative narratives that challenge Western-dominated global governance structures. Iran’s observer status in the SCO and its recent move towards full membership illustrate the growing institutionalization of this geopolitical alignment. Joint statements emerging from these forums frequently highlight themes of non-interference, multipolarity, and opposition to unilateral sanctions.

Military and Security Cooperation

Military and security collaboration represent some of the most visible and impactful aspects of their strategic cooperation. Russia and China, for instance, have significantly expanded their joint military activities in recent years, including large-scale exercises such as the “Vostok” and “Joint Sea” drills. These exercises not only enhance interoperability but also send a geopolitical signal of their willingness to counterbalance U.S. and NATO military power.

Iran has increasingly participated in trilateral naval drills with Russia and China, especially in sensitive maritime zones like the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean. These joint exercises emphasize anti-piracy, maritime security, and anti-terrorism, but their geopolitical message is clear: asserting freedom of navigation rights outside Western frameworks.

Arms trade and technology transfer constitute another critical component. Russia has supplied Iran with advanced air defense systems like the S-300, and discussions about more sophisticated platforms continue despite international sanctions. North Korea, though not a major arms supplier, is suspected of engaging in covert arms deals, particularly with Russia, including artillery munitions and ballistic missile components—an area that has gained prominence following Russia's operational needs in Ukraine.

Intelligence sharing and cybersecurity cooperation are also on the rise. All four countries face persistent cyber threats from Western intelligence agencies and have an interest in bolstering their cyber defenses. Unconfirmed reports suggest the existence of informal channels for intelligence sharing, especially concerning Western military deployments and surveillance operations in their respective regions.

Economic Collaboration

Economic collaboration among these states is driven largely by a shared desire to circumvent Western economic dominance and mitigate the impact of sanctions.

Bilateral and multilateral trade agreements form the backbone of their economic cooperation. China remains Iran’s largest trading partner, with significant investments in energy and infrastructure under the Belt and Road Initiative. Russia and China have expanded their energy trade through projects like the Power of Siberia gas pipeline. Similarly, reports of increased trade between North Korea and Russia suggest a revival of economic ties, with food, fuel, and construction materials forming key trade items.

A notable trend is the increasing use of local currencies and alternative payment systems to bypass the U.S. dollar. Russia and China have led efforts to promote de-dollarization, signing agreements to settle transactions in rubles and yuan. Iran has joined these efforts by promoting barter trade and financial mechanisms such as the Shanghai-based Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), an alternative to the SWIFT banking network.

Energy cooperation is another vital area. Russia and Iran, both major hydrocarbon exporters, have begun coordinating their policies in global oil markets, at times cooperating within the OPEC+ framework. Infrastructure projects, such as the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), which connects Iran with Russia and further into Central Asia, exemplify their efforts to develop alternative trade routes.

Technological and Energy Partnership

The technological dimension of their cooperation is often understated but increasingly significant. In the field of nuclear energy, Russia has played a key role in developing Iran’s civilian nuclear program, notably through the construction of the Bushehr nuclear power plant. China has also provided limited but crucial technical support to Iran’s nuclear and industrial sectors.

Missile technology collaboration, though shrouded in secrecy and subject to international scrutiny, is another sensitive area. Allegations persist regarding North Korean technology transfers to Iran in the field of ballistic missile development. Likewise, Russia’s potential interest in acquiring North Korean munitions in exchange for technological expertise further complicates the picture.

Infrastructure connectivity projects also highlight their strategic cooperation. China’s Belt and Road Initiative intersects with Russian and Iranian plans to develop transcontinental trade corridors that bypass Western-controlled maritime chokepoints. These projects not only serve economic purposes but also enhance strategic mobility in times of geopolitical crisis.

In addition, digital infrastructure and telecommunications cooperation are emerging as critical fronts in this partnership. Huawei, China’s technology giant, has been involved in telecommunications projects in both Iran and Russia, providing alternatives to Western digital infrastructure while raising concerns about digital authoritarianism and cyber espionage.

In conclusion, the forms and mechanisms of strategic cooperation among Iran, North Korea, Russia, and China reveal a multi-dimensional and adaptive partnership. While not a formal alliance, their coordinated actions across diplomatic, military, economic, and technological domains demonstrate a shared commitment to challenging the existing Western-led international order. This evolving cooperation is likely to have profound implications for global stability and power dynamics in the coming decades.

V. Implications for the Global Order

The emerging strategic alignment between Iran, North Korea, Russia, and China presents profound implications for the current international order, particularly as it challenges the post-Cold War dominance of the United States and its Western allies. This section examines the multidimensional impacts of this informal coalition on global governance, security architectures, and international norms.

U.S. and Western Responses

The primary Western response to the growing cooperation among these states has centered on economic sanctions, military deterrence, and diplomatic countermeasures. The United States has expanded sanctions regimes targeting individuals, entities, and sectors linked to these four countries, aiming to isolate them economically and politically. The Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) exemplifies Washington’s efforts to discourage other states from engaging with these nations.

In the military domain, the U.S. and NATO have intensified defense spending, forward deployments, and joint military exercises in regions adjacent to Russia and China. The Indo-Pacific strategy, AUKUS pact, and NATO’s growing attention to the Indo-Pacific illustrate a geographic and strategic recalibration in response to this emerging bloc.

Diplomatically, the West has sought to strengthen alliances with key partners in Asia, the Middle East, and Europe, emphasizing democratic values and rule-based international order as counter-narratives to the authoritarian models represented by Iran, North Korea, Russia, and China.

Shifts in Global Power Structures

This four-nation alignment accelerates the ongoing shift toward a multipolar world. The traditional dominance of the United States and its allies is increasingly contested by a coalition of states willing to defy Western dictates. The ability of these countries to withstand sanctions and continue advancing their strategic goals reflects a diffusion of power in the international system.

Moreover, their collective actions—such as joint military drills, alternative financial systems, and coordinated diplomatic positions—demonstrate the emergence of parallel power structures that can challenge Western influence in international institutions and regional conflicts.

Strengthening of an Anti-Hegemonic Bloc

The Iran–North Korea–Russia–China axis exemplifies the consolidation of an anti-hegemonic bloc. While their cooperation remains largely ad hoc and pragmatic, the shared objective of counterbalancing Western hegemony provides a strong foundation for ongoing collaboration. Their collective opposition to U.S. sanctions, military interventions, and normative leadership signifies the strengthening of a geopolitical front that could potentially attract other dissatisfied states, especially in the Global South.

Emerging Fault Lines Between the Global North and Global South

The growing divide between the Global North and Global South is further accentuated by this alignment. Many countries in Africa, Latin America, and parts of Asia observe this bloc’s resistance to Western pressure with interest, seeing it as an opportunity to renegotiate their own positions in the international system. The narrative of anti-colonialism and resistance to Western-imposed rules resonates with many developing nations that feel marginalized by existing global governance frameworks.

This fault line could lead to a more fragmented international system, where allegiance to either the Western liberal order or the emerging multipolar alternative becomes a defining feature of international relations.

Impact on International Norms and Institutions

The strategic behavior of this bloc challenges the foundational norms of the liberal international order, including non-proliferation, human rights enforcement, and the rule of law in international disputes. Their coordinated use of veto power at the UN Security Council undermines efforts to enforce international norms against human rights abuses and acts of aggression.

Furthermore, their initiatives to create alternative institutions—such as China’s Belt and Road Initiative or Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union—signal a long-term challenge to existing international financial and governance structures. Over time, these trends may erode the legitimacy and efficacy of Western-led international institutions.

VI. Internal and External Challenges Facing the Alliance

Despite growing cooperation, the informal alliance among Iran, North Korea, Russia, and China faces significant internal and external challenges that may constrain its strategic effectiveness and long-term durability.

Divergent Ideological Foundations and National Interests

One of the primary internal challenges lies in the divergent ideological and strategic foundations of these states. Iran is a theocratic republic driven by Islamic revolutionary ideology, North Korea follows an extreme hereditary dictatorship based on Juche and Songun (military-first) policies, Russia is a nationalist authoritarian state with imperial ambitions, and China is a state-controlled capitalist economy governed by a single-party communist regime.

These ideological differences translate into varying national interests and foreign policy priorities. While all four oppose Western hegemony, their regional goals often conflict. For example, China’s focus on economic development and global trade contrasts with North Korea’s emphasis on military brinkmanship and nuclear deterrence.

Logistical and Operational Limitations in Coordination

The absence of a formal alliance structure imposes logistical and operational limitations on their cooperation. Unlike NATO, which has established integrated command structures and joint operational doctrines, this four-nation bloc relies on ad hoc mechanisms that limit real-time coordination.

Geographical distance further complicates military interoperability and limits the scope of joint exercises. While Russia and China have conducted large-scale drills, integrating Iran and North Korea into such operations presents logistical and political hurdles.

Economic Vulnerabilities and Domestic Instability Risks

Economic vulnerabilities also pose a serious threat to the sustainability of this bloc. Iran and North Korea suffer from chronic economic crises exacerbated by sanctions and governance failures. Russia, under mounting sanctions, faces economic contraction, inflation, and a shrinking industrial base. China, while economically stronger, faces its own set of challenges, including slowing economic growth, a real estate crisis, and increasing capital flight.

Domestic unrest, whether from economic hardship or political dissatisfaction, could divert attention and resources away from international coordination efforts.

Threats from Targeted Western Sanctions and Diplomatic Isolation

Western states continue to employ targeted sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and economic decoupling as tools to weaken these countries individually and collectively. Increased Western efforts to monitor and disrupt financial networks supporting this bloc further constrain their ability to sustain cooperation.

Moreover, Western countries leverage diplomatic influence to pressure neutral states to distance themselves from the bloc, limiting its international legitimacy and soft power.

Potential for Intra-Bloc Disagreements

Finally, the potential for intra-bloc disagreements cannot be overlooked. Territorial disputes, competition for influence in shared regions (such as Central Asia), or divergent responses to international crises could strain relations.

For example, while Russia may push for more aggressive confrontations with the West, China often prefers cautious and economically calculated responses. Similarly, Iran’s regional interventions in the Middle East do not always align with Russian or Chinese strategic interests.

In sum, while the Iran–North Korea–Russia–China bloc poses a significant challenge to the existing international order, its internal contradictions, operational limitations, and external pressures create vulnerabilities that could limit its long-term strategic coherence.

Berikut adalah penjelasan lengkap untuk dua bagian terakhir:

---

VII. Future Trajectories of the Alliance (Approx. 600 words)

The future trajectory of the informal alignment between Iran, North Korea, Russia, and China remains uncertain and highly contingent on both internal dynamics and external geopolitical developments. Several plausible scenarios can be envisioned, each with distinct implications for global security and stability.

Escalation Scenario: Potential for Direct Confrontation with the West

One of the more concerning possibilities is an escalation scenario that leads to direct confrontation between this bloc and Western powers. This could arise from a series of flashpoints: further military aggression by Russia in Eastern Europe, increased Chinese military activity around Taiwan, further Iranian nuclear escalation, or renewed North Korean missile tests targeting U.S. allies in Asia.

Such provocations could trigger coordinated Western military responses, including increased NATO deployments, expanded U.S. naval presence in the Indo-Pacific, and further escalation of economic and cyber warfare. In turn, Iran, North Korea, Russia, and China may respond with joint military exercises, enhanced intelligence sharing, and even coordinated asymmetric actions, raising the risk of global conflict.

Status Quo Scenario: Maintenance of Pragmatic and Issue-Based Cooperation

A more likely near-term trajectory is the maintenance of the status quo, where cooperation remains pragmatic, transactional, and issue-specific. In this scenario, the four countries would continue to coordinate diplomatically at the United Nations, conduct selective joint military drills, and expand economic ties within the constraints of sanctions and global market realities.

This model allows each state to pursue its own national interests while leveraging the collective power of the bloc when needed. The absence of formal institutionalization reduces risks of entanglement, allowing each country to retain strategic flexibility. However, this scenario may not significantly alter the balance of power in the international system, though it would continue to frustrate Western policy goals.

Fragmentation Scenario: Risks of Internal Division Due to Domestic and International Pressures

The alliance also faces the possibility of fragmentation. Economic decline, domestic political instability, leadership transitions, or conflicting foreign policy priorities could strain the coalition. For instance, if Russia’s economy continues to deteriorate, it may prioritize rapprochement with the West over sustaining ties with pariah states like North Korea or Iran.

Similarly, China, wary of secondary sanctions and the potential impact on its global trade networks, may seek to distance itself from more provocative partners. North Korea’s unpredictability and Iran’s shifting internal political dynamics could further contribute to strategic drift.

Under this scenario, the bloc could devolve into a loose collection of states with only limited and sporadic cooperation.

Deeper Integration Scenario: Prospects for Formalizing a Eurasian Security or Economic Bloc

The most transformative scenario involves deeper integration, potentially leading to the formalization of a Eurasian security or economic bloc. This could take the form of an expanded Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) with a stronger security mandate or the establishment of new multilateral institutions dedicated to collective defense, economic integration, or technological cooperation.

Such integration would likely require greater institutional coordination, shared strategic doctrines, and mechanisms for dispute resolution within the bloc. While this scenario remains the least likely in the short term, growing Western pressure could push these nations toward greater solidarity as a means of survival and strategic counterbalance.

If realized, this would represent a major shift in global geopolitics, ushering in a new era of bloc-based competition reminiscent of the Cold War.

VIII. Conclusion

The strategic alignment between Iran, North Korea, Russia, and China represents one of the most significant geopolitical developments of the 21st century. While lacking the formal structures of a traditional alliance, their growing cooperation across diplomatic, military, economic, and technological spheres signals the emergence of a powerful and flexible anti-hegemonic bloc.

This study has highlighted the historical roots of their relationship, the individual geopolitical motivations driving each country, and the multiple forms of strategic cooperation currently in place. The analysis also underscores the complex challenges this bloc poses to the existing international order, particularly as it undermines long-standing norms, institutions, and balance-of-power dynamics.

The global strategic consequences are profound. The continued coordination among these four states may further polarize international relations, escalate regional conflicts, and accelerate the fragmentation of the liberal international order. Their capacity to challenge Western dominance through alternative institutions, economic frameworks, and military posturing could reshape the contours of global governance.

However, this bloc also faces inherent limitations. Ideological diversity, economic vulnerabilities, and divergent national interests could weaken its cohesion over time. Moreover, sustained Western diplomatic, economic, and military pressure will continue to test the resilience of this informal alliance.

For policymakers in the West and beyond, the key challenge lies in crafting strategies that both deter destabilizing behavior from this bloc and create incentives for engagement, de-escalation, and dialogue. Multilateral diplomacy, targeted economic measures, and confidence-building initiatives will be essential tools for managing this emerging geopolitical reality.

For future research, scholars should focus on monitoring the institutional evolution of this bloc, the domestic political factors influencing each member state’s foreign policy, and the role of emerging technologies—such as cyber capabilities and artificial intelligence—in shaping the future dynamics of this alliance.

In conclusion, the Iran–North Korea–Russia–China axis reflects the shifting tides of global power. Whether it evolves into a more formal coalition or remains a loose alignment of convenience, its impact on global peace, security, and governance will be a defining feature of international relations in the years to come.